Beauty Growth to Continue Through 2026

Looking ahead, Circana is forecasting 10% growth for the U.S. prestige beauty market, with expansion slowing in 2025 and 2026 to 8% and 7%, respectively.
Looking ahead, Circana is forecasting 10% growth for the U.S. prestige beauty market, with expansion slowing in 2025 and 2026 to 8% and 7%, respectively.
rh2010 at Adobe Stock

The relative weakness of the Chinese beauty market has driven interest toward India as a new international growth center, as evidenced by Sephora’s November 2023 retail expansion partnership with Reliance Beauty & Personal Care.The relative weakness of the Chinese beauty market has driven interest toward India as a new international growth center, as evidenced by Sephora’s November 2023 retail expansion partnership with Reliance Beauty & Personal Care.SephoraWhile the U.S. consumer’s willingness to spend in most consumer product sectors remains low, beauty is a notable exception. 

According to Circana data presented as part of CEW’s “State of the Industry: Global Trend Report 2024a,” U.S. prestige beauty industry dollar sales grew by 14%, year over year, to reach $31.7 billion in 2023; mass market beauty sales experienced a year-over-year dollar increase of 6% in the same period.

Meanwhile, masstige beauty accounted for 11% of overall sales, representing a growth rate of 16%, about twice that of mass.

On the upper end of the spectrum, luxury beauty’s dollar share of the U.S. market totaled 14% in 2023, per Circana, while unit share totaled 5%.

The U.S. luxury beauty sector is now pegged at $4.4 billion, with a projected growth rate of 9%, which is notably softer than the 14% rate of the prestige sector.

Meanwhile, Black-founded beauty brands grew 13% in dollar terms.

Combined, the U.S. beauty sector grew 11% year-over-year, totaling $108 billion.

Looking ahead, Circana is forecasting 10% growth for the U.S. prestige beauty market, with expansion slowing in 2025 and 2026 to 8% and 7%, respectively.

Overall unit performance is expected to remain steady through 2026, with some consumers shifting their spending to mass, per Circana.

From a global perspective, NIQ’s Tara James Taylor noted to the CEW audience that Europe’s beauty market posted 10.9% growth in 2023, compared to 21.3% for Latin America and 3.4% for Asia-Pacific, reflecting continued softness in China.

According to NIQ data, India’s beauty sales were up 7.1% year over year in latest reporting period (Q3 2023).According to NIQ data, India’s beauty sales were up 7.1% year over year in latest reporting period (Q3 2023).Kitreel at Adobe StockThe relative weakness of the Chinese beauty market has driven interest toward India as a new international growth center, as evidenced by Sephora’s November 2023 retail expansion partnership with Reliance Beauty & Personal Care.

According to NIQ data, India’s beauty sales were up 7.1% year over year in latest reporting period (Q3 2023).

In that time, fragrance sales jumped 17.6% year-over-year. This is echoed by a rise in online searches for men’s fragrances, per data presented by Google’s Sam Mintz and Spate’s Yarden Horwitz.

Skin care sales in India—another key men’s segment per Google and Spate—jumped 8.6% in the same period, per NIQ data, followed by color cosmetics, which increased by 8%.

Hair care sales in India were up 5% in the same timeframe, while nail care sales increased about 4.9%.

Key trends in India, per NIQ, include Ayurvedic ingredients native to the market, as well as minimalism and male beauty.

Google/Spate data presented during the CEW event unearthed other trends, including natural formulations, interest in which is driven by a young population in India, as are searches focused on pollution and UV defense.

Elsewhere, top U.S. trends included scalp health and celebrity brands, per NIQ, while leading U.K. trends included menopausal beauty, skinification concepts and K-beauty.

According to NIQ, top trends among Chinese beauty shoppers include local brands, natural health ingredients and high-tech beauty.

In total, per NIQ data, global beauty spending was up 13% in 2023, compared to about 11% in the U.S. market.

Unit sales grew 2.7% in the European Union, compared to 4% in the U.S. market.


ahttps://cew.org/event/state-of-the-beauty-industry-report-2024/

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