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The Lipstick Index Holds True

Posted: April 9, 2009

New market forecasts from Mintel predict cosmetic sales in the US will rise as a result of the recession. Moreover, Mintel anticipates a higher growth rate for makeup now than it did just eight months ago (10% over the next five years versus 7%).

Mintel's re-forecasting of previously published research reports has uncovered which beauty and personal care markets are recession-proof and which ones are being stimulated by the poor economy. Though the beauty and personal care sector is struggling overall, Mintel sees some very bright spots, including color cosmetics.

"Many women have a deep emotional tie to their appearance, so cosmetics are a non-negotiable," said Joan Holleran, director of research, Mintel. "These women may trade down on other purchases or forgo expensive vacations, but they will still treat themselves to small, feel-good luxuries like makeup and beauty products."

Holleran points to another segment that is expected to fare the recession well: antiaging beauty. Mintel expects sales of antiaging skin care products to increase 20% during the next five years. One year ago, Mintel forecast 44% five-year growth, but the adjusted market forecast is significant given the current economic climate.

Mintel also predicts healthy growth for sun care products, with sales expected to increase 36% from 2008 to 2013. This is a slight decline from Mintel's original market forecast of 41% growth, but it still shows people continuing to follow dermatologists' advice to use sunscreen daily.