Adobe has released its 2025 holiday shopping data, highlighting the total spend for the holiday season, including the rise of mobile as the dominant shopping channel, the increase of buy now, pay later (BNPL) shopping methods and the rapid acceleration of AI-driven traffic to retail sites.
- To see data from last year's holiday season, click here.
Top-Line Data Sees Increase in Total Season Spend
The 2025 holiday season is poised to be the first quarter-trillion-dollar holiday season. Adobe forecasts a record $253.4 billion will be spent online this holiday season (Nov 1–Nov 23), up 5.3% year-on-year.
For the total season between November 1 and November 28, Adobe reports $123.17 billion spent, a 7.2% increase YOY. For mobile spending, Adobe reports $65.5 billion, a 7.1% increase YOY, and for BNPL, a total of $9.0 billion, representing an 8.6% increase YOY.
For key days, including Black Friday and Cyber Monday, Adobe forecasts that cosmetics will see $8.4 billion in 2025, compared to $7.7 billion in 2024.
Among top hot products, the Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler, cosmetics and skin care sets and fragrances were set to be top-selling items across all product categories.
AI-Driven E-Commerce Traffic and Mobile Spending
AI is changing how consumers shop for holiday gifts. This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to rise 515–520% from the 2024 holidays.
Between November 1 and November 30, AI traffic saw a 770% increase YOY as AI drove online traffic through both mobile and desktop mediums.
Referrals by device type include:
- Desktop: 74.4%
- Mobile: 25.6%
For mobile devices, 2025 is poised to be the first full year that mobile makes up more than 50% of online spend. According to Adobe, from November 1 to November 30, mobile made up 52.6% of revenue shares. Adobe forecasts mobile revenue share to hit a record 56.1% and reach $143.7 billion in total mobile spend this holiday season. Adobe also predicts that 7 in 10 retail site visits will take place on mobile devices.
Buy Now, Pay Later
Buy now, pay later continues to be an important payment option for consumers this holiday season. Between November 1 and November 30, BNPL mobile spend hit $7.5 billion. Adobe forecasts $20.2 billion will be spent through the payment method this holiday (Nov 1–Dec 31, 2025), representing 11% growth over 2024.
- For the full report, click here.
