Circana has released its 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report, revealing that this year's holiday retail season will be defined by practicality, early planning and digital convenience.
According to the report, the 2025 holiday spending is expected to be similar to last year’s results, falling between a 1% decline and 2% growth in dollars. However, unit sales may fall by as much as 2.5% during the traditional November and December holiday shopping period.
While there is very little movement in 2025 for intent to purchase, with most categories expecting to be purchased at rates similar to last year, the beauty category is seeing one of the largest increases from last year, hitting 3.7%. Beauty (which covers makeup, hair and skin products) is also seeing positive average spend.
Key Insights On Consumer Holiday Spending
Spending is up 3%: Shoppers are planning to spend more this year despite economic uncertainty.
Earlier start to shopping: Nearly one-half of shoppers plan to buy before Thanksgiving.
Influencer impact: 60% of those following influencers are likely to purchase based on their recommendations.
Price-conscious: Value, free shipping and deals remain top priorities for consumers.
Fragrance Finds Growth Despite Stalling Market
Within beauty, fragrance is one of the most gifted items among U.S. consumers. In fact, roughly one-in-five consumers purchased fragrance as a holiday gift last year, and purchase intentions for this season are trending higher.
In 2025, Circana expects that Q4 prestige fragrance sales will post low single-digit growth and once again exceed $4 billion in the U.S. Each year, December drives the largest impact and accounts for about 60% of total Q4 sales. The greatest concentration of December spend is during the week before and the week of Christmas, when stores are crowded with last-minute shoppers.
For fragrance shoppers in the department and beauty specialty stores, this year’s demand is expected to be fueled by offerings across both the premium and affordable price tiers.
This includes higher juice concentrations like parfums and luxury brands, as well as lower priced alternatives such as mini sizes and body sprays.
Sales of prestige gift sets typically spike during the holidays, representing over 25% of Q4 sales, an outcome which we expect to repeat itself this year.
Prestige fragrance will remain the dominant force in the overall fragrance category.
The double-digit growth in mass retail sales so far signals that mass scents will play a more significant role throughout the remainder of the holiday season.
Jacquelyn Wenskus, director and fragrance category analyst at Circana, said "Fragrance continues to shine as a holiday favorite, blending tradition with evolving consumer preferences. On a personal note, I love giving and receiving fragrances of all kinds—whether it’s luxurious or less expensive. This year, it will be exciting to see prestige fragrances continue to lead the market, while the growing influence of mass scents promises a dynamic season ahead."
