Makeup's Millennial Problem

Move over, avocado toast: we have another thing to pin on millennials.

While makeup was the largest prestige beauty category for the first nine months of 2024, its 5% year-over-year growth was significantly slower than hair and fragrance. Mass sales actually contracted about 3% in the same period.

It turns out that millennials may be part of the category's challenges. As these shoppers age, "their needs and priorities change," according to a recent analysis by Circana's Larissa Jensen.

"Millennials are showing the largest drop in usage," Jensen notes, "which contributed to the slowdown in sales performance across the mass and prestige markets."

This generation isn't just pulling back on makeup, they're constraining spending in all discretionary sectors. That behavior could continue or even escalate through 2025, Jensen adds, potentially impacting other sectors.

Gen X and Alpha offer opportunities to make up some losses seen among the millennial cohort.

While the industry is thrilled to see the enthusiasm of Gen Alpha, which seems to boost the beauty spend in higher income households by a factor of 3x, keeping things age-appropriate is a major concern.

Education and proper product assortments will be key to harnessing burgeoning excitement responsibly.

Meanwhile, Jensen's analysis notes that the aging Gen X cohort is a key opportunity for brands, particularly in pro-aging. Yet these shoppers' preferences are more likely to resemble those of Gen Z and millennials, rather than boomers.

Despite the challenges, Jensen says, "U.S. consumers continue to turn to beauty products and the industry outlook is positive for 2025."

Understanding generational dynamics will be crucial for success.