The prediction business can be fraught, especially in the rapidly evolving beauty space. However, looking ahead at 2024 and the throughlines of 2023, it’s clear that some broad themes are sure to be front and center. Below are just a few areas that have captured my attention most.
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The prediction business can be fraught, especially in the rapidly evolving beauty space. However, looking ahead at 2024 and the throughlines of 2023, it’s clear that some broad themes are sure to be front and center. Below are just a few areas that have captured my attention most.
1. Generative AI x beauty: In a little more than a year, ChatGPT and its generative AI siblings have begun to reshape every industry. In the beauty space, generative tools have already been applied to skin and hair diagnostic tools for personalized product recommendations, trend tracking and forecasting, formulation development and packaging design, and business operations. Expect to see this escalate in the coming year.
2. Gravity-defying sales: Beauty hasn’t just done well in the United States in 2023; it has outperformed essentially every other consumer product category in terms of growth. Even retailers such as Target, which have been challenged overall, have found beauty to be a bright spot. Given that the long-looming recession in the United States has yet to materialize and improving consumer sentiment amid slowing inflation (as of press time), beauty and personal care may be in for continued strong results.
3. All things India: As China continues to struggle to rebound after the pandemic and amid housing and banking crises, India’s booming population has become a new point of focus for multinationals seeking growth in Asia-Pacific. Beyond the market opportunity, India’s beauty culture, particularly the use of Ayurvedic ingredients and practices, has spread beyond the subcontinent to markets in the West.
4. Holistic beauty: Though not an entirely new concept, beauty solutions that consider the entirety of the human body and its interconnected systems have reached a tipping point. From models focused on the gut-skin axis to hormone- and sleep-cycle-responsive care to products that deliver both emotional and aesthetic benefits, brands are increasingly addressing the whole person.
5. High-tech sustainability: Sustainable beauty has moved well beyond the “free from” phase of R&D and marketing to a period of high innovation. Today’s breakthrough suppliers and brands are tapping carbon capture to create new ingredients; leveraging ever more sophisticated biotech; finding ways to extract biomolecules using water, air and pressure, rather than harsh solvents; sustainably harvesting microbes from the natural world for new beauty benefits; and leveraging new packaging materials, formats and programs that prioritize easy recyclability and end-of-life disposal.
6. Less is more: From minimalist ingredient decks to pared down beauty routines, consumers are increasingly focused on products that prioritize quality, efficacy and maximum efficiency. If it doesn’t add real value to their lives, shoppers simply don’t want it. This is a major opportunity for mass brands that deliver results and high value, as well as for more prestige players that can provide strong proof of claims.
These trends represent just a snapshot of an increasingly dynamic market. As always, conditions are subject to change—at any moment. I look forward to exploring these themes in the coming months; but most of all I’m eager to engage with the trends none of us saw coming. I promise to keep on my toes.
See you next month.
