In February 2024, CEW hosted its annual "Global Trend Report" virtual event, featuring data and analyses from Yarden Horwitz of Spate, Larissa Jensen of Circana, Sarah Jindal of Mintel, Sam Mintz of Google, Leslie Ann Hall of Iced Media, Tara James Taylor of NielsenIQ, and Conor Begley and Alex Rawitz of CreatorIQ/Tribe Dynamics. Read our full, multi-part analysis here:
- Decoding Generation Alpha & Beauty
- Are Beauty Dupes a Good Thing?
- Beauty Retail 2024 & Beyond: Shoppers, Inflation & Promotions
While the U.S. consumer’s willingness to spend in most consumer product sectors remains low, beauty is a notable exception.
But the keys to success vary widely among product segments and price tiers, revealing a complex mix of trends and economic factors, including the rise of Generation Alpha, the encroachment of masstige beauty, and fast-moving, tech-driven consumer demands.
2023 Beauty Sales & Price Tier Dynamics
According to Circana data presented as part of CEW’s “State of the Industry: Global Trend Report 2024,” U.S. prestige beauty industry dollar sales grew by 14%, year over year, to reach $31.7 billion in 2023; mass market beauty sales experienced a year-over-year dollar increase of 6% in the same period.
Meanwhile, masstige beauty accounted for 11% of overall sales, representing a growth rate of 16%, about twice that of mass.
On the upper end of the spectrum, luxury beauty’s dollar share of the U.S. market totaled 14% in 2023, per Circana, while unit share totaled 5%.
The U.S. luxury beauty sector is now pegged at $4.4 billion, with a projected growth rate of 9%, which is notably softer than the 14% rate of the prestige sector.
Combined, the U.S. beauty sector grew 11% year-over-year, per Circana, totaling $108 billion.
2026 Beauty Sales Forecast
Looking ahead, Circana is forecasting 10% growth for the U.S. prestige beauty market, with expansion slowing in 2025 and 2026 to 8% and 7%, respectively.
Overall unit performance is expected to remain steady through 2026, with some consumers shifting their spending to mass, per Circana.
Beauty’s Category Blur: from Mass to Luxury
Masstige brands account for about 20% of the hair care sector and are the fastest-growing price tier in skin care, accelerating at 28% year-over-year.Pixel-Shot at Adobe Stock
Many of these shoppers are spending across categories, but at varying rates by income tier.
According to Circana, 94% of all prestige beauty brand buyers also purchase mass products, compared to 35% of mass buyers who also consumer prestige brands.
This cross-tier shopping behavior should be considered the new normal, Circana’s Larissa Jensen told the CEW audience.
She added that this type of cross-tier shopping is fueling masstige’s gains in market share from both mass and prestige brands.
Fragrance and makeup dominate prestige beauty as measured by dollar sales, while skin care dominates masstige and mass beauty, per Circana 2023 data.
By units, makeup leads prestige, while skin care leads masstige and mass.
At the product level, NielsenIQ data revealed that top prestige sellers included fragrance EDPs, multiuse lip makeup and fragrance juice sets.
Masstige brands account for about 20% of the hair care sector and are the fastest-growing price tier in skin care, accelerating at 28% year-over-year.
In fragrance, masstige brands jumped 18% year-over-year, while mass sales actually declined 1% versus 2022.
At the product level, NielsenIQ data revealed that the top masstige sellers were face serums, facial cleansers and multiuse skin care products.
At the mass tier, top sellers were body cleansers, deodorants and skin care sets/kits.
Luxury beauty drivers vary by market, according to Circana, with online and brick and mortar channels representing 14% of the market in the United States, while livestreaming on Douyin (China’s TikTok) and online travel retail account for 21% and 45% of China’s luxury market, respectively.
Chinese luxury consumers are notably enthusiastic about indulging in high-end skin care, while their U.S. counterparts are more likely to purchase from prestige or even masstige or mass skin care brands.
“The beauty industry is strong, and the outlook remains positive for both the mass and prestige sides of the business in 2024,” said Larissa Jensen, global beauty industry advisor at Circana, in her year-end analysis. “This performance is remarkable given the phenomenal growth it has experienced for the past two years, but the industry should not rest on its laurels. Consumers continue to cope with economic pressures, and being in tune with their shifting mindset is a must. Flexibility, creative thinking, and effectively harnessing high consumer engagement are all part of the winning formula to drive continued growth.”
Subcategory Performance: Celebrities, Indies & More
Black-founded beauty brands grew 13% in dollar terms in 2023, per Circana, while NielsenIQ reported that the celebrity beauty sector is now a $1 billion category in the United States, posting 58% growth year-over-year. Still, many celebrity brands struggle.
Indie brands grew 15% year-over-year in 2023, per NielsenIQ, comprising 36.7% of market. Top-growing indies include Tower 28, TruSkin and Merit.
At the same time, consumer loyalty is down among legacy brands, NielsenIQ reported, with 76% of buyers purchasing 10-plus beauty and personal care brands each year.
Top Markets: India & China
According to NielsenIQ data, India’s beauty sales were up 7.1% year over year in latest reporting period (Q3 2023).Alberto at Adobe Stock
Unit sales grew 2.7% in the European Union, compared to 4% in the U.S. market.
NielsenIQ’s Tara James Taylor noted to the CEW audience that Europe’s beauty market posted 10.9% growth in 2023, compared to 21.3% for Latin America and 3.4% for Asia-Pacific, reflecting continued softness in China.
The relative weakness of the Chinese beauty market has driven interest toward India as a new international growth center, as evidenced by Sephora’s November 2023 retail expansion partnership with Reliance Beauty & Personal Care.
According to NielsenIQ data, India’s beauty sales were up 7.1% year over year in latest reporting period (Q3 2023).
In that time, fragrance sales jumped 17.6% year-over-year.
Skin care sales in India jumped 8.6% in the same period, per NielsenIQ data, followed by color cosmetics, which increased by 8%.
Hair care sales in India were up 5% in the same timeframe, while nail care sales increased about 4.9%.
Key trends in India, per NielsenIQ, include Ayurvedic ingredients native to the market, as well as minimalism and male beauty.
Google/Spate data presented during the CEW event unearthed other trends, including natural formulations, interest in which is driven by a young population in India, as are searches focused on pollution and UV defense.
To compare, top trends among Chinese beauty shoppers include local brands, natural health ingredients and high-tech beauty, while top U.S. trends included scalp health and celebrity brands, and leading U.K. trends included menopausal beauty, skinification concepts and K-beauty.
2023 Beauty Sales Totals & Trends: the Full Rundown
Makeup Sales & Trends, 2023
Spate noted that makeup has surpassed pre-pandemic search volume levels, signaling significant engagement in the category.Minerva Studio
Makeup was also one of only two mass sectors that grew based on unit sales (the other was skin care).
Top growers in the prestige makeup category included lip makeup, which spiked 31% year-over-year, or twice the rate of the overall category. This was led by products such as tinted lip balms and oils, the latter of which nearly tripled in 2023.
The top prestige makeup launch by dollar volume sales in 2023 was Benefit’s Fan Fest Tanning & Volumizing Mascara, per Circana, while the top masstige launch was OPI’s Nail Envy Advanced Strength Nail Strengthener.
The top mass launch was Maybelline’s The Falsies Surreal Extensions Blackest Black Mascara. As with hair and skin care, the top five makeup brands in 2023 were all mass.
Spate, meanwhile, noted that makeup has surpassed pre-pandemic search volume levels, signaling significant engagement in the category.
Top makeup claims searches include glow, dewy, setting and weightless.
Most-searched brands include Rare Beauty, e.l.f. Beauty, Laura Geller, Drunk Elephant and Il Makiage.
Skin Care Sales & Trends, 2023
Top prestige skin care performers included face serums and creams, body sprays, body lotions and creams, and body cleansers.AnnaStills
Skin care was the fastest-growing category in prestige beauty based on units sold, per Circana. Skin care was also one of only two mass sectors that grew based on unit sales (the other, as previously noted, was makeup).
Top prestige performers included face serums and creams, body sprays, body lotions and creams, and body cleansers.
The top U.S. prestige skin care launch in terms of dollar volume sales was Clinique’s Moisture Surge Broad Spectrum SPF 28 Sheer Hydrator Moisturizer, while the top masstige launch was The Ordinary’s Multi-Peptide Eye Serum.
The top mass launch was Olay’s Cleansing & Nourishing Body Wash. As seen in hair care, the top five skin care brands by dollar volume were mass.
Meanwhile, “dermification” of skin care is fully underway, according to Circana data.
The U.S. derm skin care sector, which is valued at about $4.9 billion, is dominated by mass brands. In fact, the two leading brands in the space are accessible: CeraVe (which made a major splash during the 2024 Super Bowl game) and Cetaphil.
That said, mass and prestige derm brands both jumped 14% year-over-year in 2023; the top five performing derm brands reportedly represent 72% of the total derm sector, a notable level of consolidation.
Meanwhile, derm skin care searches spiked 27% in 2023, while doctor-/dermatologist-backed skin care searches jumped 58%.
In the pro beauty space, Gen Z has the highest engagement with prejuvenation treatments, including Botox, dermal fillers, enzyme peels, etc., per Circana. Interest, however, is highest among those age 35+.
Meanwhile, NielsenIQ data has found that U.S. consumers are searching for specific ingredients at point of purchase. The firm noted big growth in queries for salicylic acid, niacinamide, retinol and hyaluronic acid, signaling the importance of including ingredient names either in product names or at least in prominent sections of product pages.
In China, where luxury skin care is generally more popular than among U.S. shoppers, skin care sets and kits are on the rise, as well as face creams and face serums.
Looking ahead, Spate data shows that top-trending U.S. online searches in skin care claims include SPF, advanced, oil-free and balancing.
Top-searched ingredients include vitamin C, hyaluronic acid and tretinoin, indicating that category standbys, rather than novel materials, are most popular.
Finally, the most-searched skin care brands include CeraVe, Paula’s Choice and La Roche-Posay, among others, including Glow Recipe and a number of other K-beauty brands.
Fragrance Sales & Trends, 2023
Prestige fragrance grew about 12% in 2023, compared to about 4% in mass, per Circana.DragonImages at Adobe Stock
Top growth categories included higher fragrance concentrations such as eau de parfums and parfums, which gained three share points in 2023.
Value propositions also did well, including mini/travel sizes and body sprays.
Notably, per Circana, unit sales for mini women’s fragrances grew at five times the rate of other sizes, while the size of the body spray market nearly tripled since 2022.
Gift sets, however, were the fastest-growing segment of the fragrance market overall in 2023.
According to Circana data, only 23% of fragrance purchasers are influenced by discounts.
Nearly 80% are willing to pay more for a scent they like and about the same portion will pay a premium for mood-boosting scents.
According to Circana, the top fragrance masstige launch in 2023 by dollar volume sales was Ariana Grande’s Mod Vanilla, while the top mass launch was Old Spice’s Swagger Body Wash.
The top prestige scent launches included Carolina Herrera Good Girl Blush, Yves Saint Laurent Myslf and Burberry Goddess.
Looking ahead, Spate data shows that fragrance is the fastest growing beauty category in terms of online search volume—jumping 34% year-over-year.
Notably, Gen Z is associating scent with well-being and identity, moods and emotions, rather than romance or beauty.
Hair Care Sales & Trends, 2023
Spate data showed that hair growth claims are increasingly popular in the U.S. market due in part to an aging population.Prostock-studio
Hair styling was the fastest grower in the prestige hair category, with dollar sales up 24%, driven by a more than doubling of hair launch volume compared to 2022.
According to Circana, sales of scalp care jumped 42% in 2023, reflecting a wider interest in hair wellness.
Dry shampoos had a good year in 2023. The top prestige hair launch item in dollar volume sales for 2023 was Living Proof’s Perfect Hair Day dry shampoo, while the top mass launch was Batiste’s Bare Dry Shampoo.
Spate data, meanwhile, showed that hair growth claims are increasingly popular in the U.S. market due in part to an aging population.
This is evidenced in high search volume for thick hair queries, as well as searches involving growth-related materials such as minoxidil, ketoconazole and dutasteride, as well as brands like Nutrafol.
Consumers are also searching for products without ingredients such as benzene, hydrogen peroxide and SLS.
Top-trending looks in hair include low-maintenance and textured hair styles, as well as gray blending, per Spate data.
The top masstige launch was Redken’s All Soft Mega Curls Shampoo.
Notably, the top five brands of the year in terms of dollar volume sales all fell in the mass space, per Circana.
Also of note, hair is the only beauty category that captures the majority of its sales online; in 2023, e-commerce accounted for 52% of sales volume.
Most-searched hair care brands online, according to Spate, include Amika, Kérastase, Mielle Organics, K18, Ouai, Unbrush, J-beauty brand Fino, AnaGain (from GentleHomme, not to be confused with Mibelle Biochemistry’s ingredient) and Hers (targeting hair loss with trademarked ingredients).
K-beauty brands also made the list, including Dashu and the top-trending brand, Ashrolen, which uses beer yeast in its formulations.
Body Care Sales & Trends, 2023
Deodorant drove 34% of personal care growth. In the deodorant category, top brands succeeded through innovation and competitive pricing, per Circana, while upstarts like Lume and Dr. Squatch won with natural offerings and premium pricing.dusanpetkovic1 at Adobe Stock
Meanwhile, gut health drove 26% of growth in the traditional OTC space.
Top ingredients in the supplement sector were magnesium, collagen, kratom, creatine, probiotics and ashwagandha. At the same time, mineral supplements drove 51% of growth in the nutritionals sector.
Deodorant drove 34% of personal care growth. In the deodorant category, top brands succeeded through innovation and competitive pricing, per Circana, while upstarts like Lume and Dr. Squatch won with natural offerings and premium pricing.
