
In recent quarters, color cosmetics have consistently featured two superstar categories—lips and blush. However, digging into emerging data, other opportunities emerge, pointing to a select resurgence in eye segments, as well as unmet concerns that could drive product innovation and marketing initiatives for brands in 2025 and beyond. Let’s get into the data.
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In recent quarters, color cosmetics have consistently featured two superstar categories—lips and blush. However, digging into emerging data, other opportunities emerge, pointing to a select resurgence in eye segments, as well as unmet concerns that could drive product innovation and marketing initiatives for brands in 2025 and beyond. Let’s get into the data.
Yes, Blush and Lips Still Dominate Makeup
In September 2024, Milani Cosmetics launched a hybrid highlighting blush, the Cheek Kiss Liquid Blush + Glow. Retailing for $12.99 as of its launch, the SKU reflected a boom in the blush sector.courtesy of Milani Cosmetics
It turns out that millennials may be part of the category's challenges. As these shoppers age, "their needs and priorities change," according to a recent analysis by Circana's Larissa Jensen.
"Millennials are showing the largest drop in usage," Jensen notes, "which contributed to the slowdown in sales performance across the mass and prestige markets."
As in previous quarters, the lip makeup segment was a juggernaut, expanding by 21% in dollar terms and 23% in unit terms. Key drivers included tinted lip balms and oils. (For a deep dive of opportunities in the category, read our 2024 makeup reportb.)
Further driving lip sales are the sheer number of new launches coming into the space. Per Circana, there has been "a doubling of dollar sales tied to launches this year [2024] through September, compared to 2023.”
Spate’s recent 2025 trend forecastc recently highlighted several key search trends that could drive further growth in the lip category, noting gains in queries for brown and “dark” lip liners, as well as peel-off lip stains.
We also apparently also haven't hit peak blush, per Circana, with the category's sales up double-digits.
According to a December 2024 report based on Spate’s New Popularity Index, which combines Google and TikTok data, jelly blush has been a standout trend in recent months.
This "vibrant blush stain with a jelly, elastic texture," as Spate puts it, is typified by Milk Makeup’s Cooling Water Jelly Tint, which has massive search volume and TikTok popularity.
As Alison Wery, assistant lecturer at the University of Toledo's Department of Pharmacy Practice, reported in March 2024, "this product is all about texture," led by the inclusion of agarose, a purified version of agar that is, interestingly, a popular gelling agent used in microbiology to grow microorganisms in petri dishes. The polysaccharide is extracted from red seaweed that, when heated and cooled, becomes a solid and squishy gel due to hydrogen bonding. Milk Makeup’s Cooling Water Jelly Tint also includes carbomer, another gelling agent.
The prevalence of this unique formulation "indicates consumer openness to innovative textures and formats," Spate argues, "particularly those with a glossy finish."
Despite the popularity of blush, however, other formats are also favored in the cheek sector, namely cheek tints. This portable format (compared to powder blushes) provides a "buildable watercolor effect," per Spate, imparting a "natural flush" that can be controlled by the wearer. The format is also multifunctional, allowing consumers to apply pigment to the lips, cheeks and eyelids.
But this boom in the cheek and lip categories isn’t the whole story. New Spate data points to emerging interest in eye categories, as well as a number of unmet needs.
Eye Category Comeback
With few exceptions, including a brief blip during the heavy masking days of peak-pandemic life, eye makeup has been largely off the radar in terms of growth-driving sectors. But Spate data shows that a focus on eyes may be coming back.
Aegyo-sal: Recapturing Youth
Korea isn’t just leading beauty trends via K-beauty innovation; even its cultural concepts are shaping preferences. Aegyo-sal is a Korean term referring to the “baby fat” beneath one’s eyes, which (in some circles) is seen as a sign of youth.
In its 2025 predictive report, Spate anticipates that Google searches for aegyo-sal will grow 134.7% between September 2024 and September 2025.
Google search data for the 12 months between December 2023 and December 2024 show that one brand dominates aegyo-sal queries: Colorgram’s All In One Aegyo-Sal Maker.
Available in seven colors, the Korean brand’s dual-ended contour stick features a “shimmery side to highlight your under-eye area,” as well as a flat matte side to add “subtle shading” to give the illusion of the sought-after pouches, which in turn evoke a sense of larger eyes.
Lashes & Brows: High & Low Maintenance
Spate predictive data points to simplicity in the eye area, as evidenced by strong growth forecasts for brow stains and tubing mascaras. At the same time, however, maximalist shoppers are forecast to pursue cluster lashes.
Mature Makeup: Untapped Opportunities
Mature makeup shoppers have a number of key concerns, including cakey makeup and dry lips.Antoni Shkraba at Pexels
At the same time, mature shoppers clearly have some unmet needs, which provides further opportunities for nimble brands. Spate’s report notes that searches for cakey makeup and creasing concealer are both up, pointing to perennial frustrations among older consumers.
As Spate puts it, “[T]he growth of concerns like cakey makeup and concealer creasing showcases the demand for makeup that blends seamlessly with the skin, especially for mature and dry skin types.”
This is a cross-category phenomenon, pointing to innovation windows for hybrid products. Notably, in the skin care sector, Spate has noted a 2.9K monthly spike in searches related to mature skin, as well as a 1.4K jump in searches related to dry lips (see Sarah Creal’s Speak For Yourself Hydrating Lipstick).
According to Circana, Gen X consumers (those born between 1965 and 1980) are heavier purchasers of makeup compared to boomers, millennials and Gen Z.
In August 2024, Larissa Jensen, vice president and beauty industry adviser at Circana, told Global Cosmetic Industry that Gen X is a “highly engaged beauty consumer” that the beauty industry needs to pay closer attention to.
But there are reasons these older consumers are sometimes overlooked.
“Gen X is smaller in size, sandwiched between the bigger, more attention-grabbing boomers and millennials,” said Jensen. “And with the current industry focus on the younger Gen Z and Gen Alpha, Gen X is pushed even further aside. But Gen X is a highly engaged beauty consumer that has grown their spend in beauty at a greater rate than any other generation. And in just four short years they will outnumber boomers. The beauty industry needs to start paying closer attention to this cohort.”
“Subjects like eyebrows, concealer and skin care order are ones we see increased engagement on both Facebook and Instagram,” Bethany Blair, senior director of content at Ipsy, told Global Cosmetic Industry. “Specifically, eyebrow content, whether it be a meme remembering the 90s brow or more educational content like how to fill in your brows after over-plucking, how to achieve a current trend, or suffering brow hair loss. We often see comments highlighting a feeling of being seen through this type of content."
Spate notes that older consumers are specifically concerned about the compatibility of makeup products for their aging skin. For this reason, Sephora has created a dedicated page highlighting makeup for mature skin.
Danessa Myricks Beauty’s Yummy Skin Moisture Repair Balm Serum with Hyaluronic Acid and Squalane (pictured here with another SKU), was declared by one Sephora reviewer as “dry skin’s bestie.”courtesy of Danessa Myricks Beauty
- Urban Decay’s All Nighter Extra Glow Dewy Setting Spray, which offers a more flattering alternative to matte looks;
- Laura Mercier’s Real Flawless Weightless Perfecting Waterproof Foundation, which is prized for its lightweight and durable wear and features bamboo silk powders, vitamin E, camelia seed and cacao extract;
- Sarah Creal’s Speak For Yourself Hydrating Lipstick, praised for its performance on mature dry skin and which comprises hydrating raspberry stem cell extract and lip barrier supporting grape extract;
- Bobbi Brown’s Weightless Skin Oil-Controlling Foundation SPF 15 with Hyaluronic Acid, which is lightweight and reportedly avoids the sin of making fine lines and wrinkles stand out more than they do naturally;
- and Danessa Myricks Beauty’s Yummy Skin Moisture Repair Balm Serum with Hyaluronic Acid and Squalane, declared by one Sephora reviewer as “dry skin’s bestie.”
“Brands should tap into this growing trend and offer products adapted to more mature skins,” Spate recommends, “with an emphasis on how important textures, formulas and application techniques are.”
Acne: A Cross-category Worry
Acne-centric searches offer a wide-ranging preoccupation across ages and product segments.
Per Spate, there has been a 1.3K jump in monthly Google searches for non-comedogenic makeup. It’s no surprise, then that, in the same 12-month period, searches for “pimple” alongside makeup have increased by 1.9K.
Per Spate, there has been a 1.3K jump in monthly Google searches for non-comedogenic makeup. It’s no surprise, then that, in the same 12-month period, searches for “pimple” alongside makeup have increased by 1.9K.cottonbro studio at Pexels
Among top skin care concerns, "pimple" spiked a notable 16.2K per month, in addition to more specific searches such as "dry acne-prone" (up 2.3K per month), fungal acne (up 2.0K) and sebum (up 1.8K).
A Desire for Radiance
In terms of product facets, shoppers are searching for products that offer highlighting and glowy effects. According to Spate, this reflects a “continued desire for radiant finishes, aligning with the desire for makeup that enhances one’s appearance.”
What’s Next for Makeup?
The data clearly shows that brands seeking growth in the color cosmetic space will need to target emerging trends, while addressing the skin-centric concerns of mature and acne-prone consumers. This opens an opportunity both for novel products addressing the latest trends and hybrid formats that deliver the best of both worlds for every life stage.
FOOTNOTES
awww.circana.com/solutions/complete-beauty/
bwww.gcimagazine.com/brands-products/color-cosmetics/article/22917466/2024s-fastestgrowing-makeup-categories-lips-unique-formats