Update [November 23, 2022]: In a new research note, NPD's Larissa Jensen previewed upcoming shopping days: "Like last year, the spreading of the 2022 holiday season is expected to bring stronger growth during the weeks ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Sales on both days should grow, but at a much softer rate than years prior; and Cyber Monday will likely underperform Black Friday. Regardless of when consumers start shopping, fragrance remains more of a last-minute gift with one third of Q4 fragrance sales occurring during Christmas week.”
Deep dive: NPD, Byoma & Skin Gym Talk Prestige Beauty
Promising Holiday Sales Trends
NPD is currently "forecasting [U.S.] holiday sales growth for the prestige beauty industry," according to a new report. Fragrance will grow at a slower pace this year compared to the high comparables of 2021, while skin care, hair care and makeup will post "strong sales performance."
According to NPD research, "28% of consumers are planning to purchase beauty products this holiday season," in line with prior seasons. But there are other drivers that may propel sales.
For instance, consumers' shift back from online to in-store shopping benefits beauty, which achieves the vast majority of sales in physical shops (stores also encourage frequent impulse purchasing).
Prestige vs Mass Beauty
Prestige beauty's trend line, however, contrasts with the mass channel. According to IRI data, unit sales are declining for mass channel beauty, year-to-date. Why?
For one thing, almost half of prestige beauty shoppers boast a household income of more than $100K per year, compared to the mass consumer base in which about 1/3 earn less than $50K per year.
Widening the gap further, shoppers earning more than $150K per year are most likely to "spend more, shop for themselves and purchase beauty products during the holiday season," per NPD.
To learn more about beauty holiday 2022 sales drivers, read our recent report, "4 Factors Driving 2022 Holiday Beauty Sales."